The new World Energy Outlook will be published on 12 November
The World Energy Outlook has long been recognised as the gold standard of long-term energy modelling and this year's edition will be published on 12 November.
Since it was published as an annual report in 1998, the approach of the World Energy Outlook has never been to provide a single vision of the future but rather to view the world through different lenses or scenarios. All scenarios have the same starting point based on the latest data for energy supply and demand, markets, technology costs and policies, as well as the same assumptions for future population and economic growth. However, depending on the scenario, different assumptions on policies, end goals or the ability to overcome technological barriers can mean very different energy futures. This approach allows for a comparison of the effects and implications of different energy choices against a common backdrop.
Every year, we carefully review the scenarios included in the WEO to make sure they remain as useful and relevant as possible to policymakers and other stakeholders. This year is no different, and the WEO-2025 will see some changes from the past several years in the suite of energy futures it considers.
Multiple scenarios enable us to explore different aspects of energy security, affordability and sustainability
None of the scenarios in the WEO are a forecast. A framework that includes multiple scenarios allows us to explore the consequences of different policy choices for the key policy priorities of energy security, affordability and sustainability.
The WEO-2025 will include two exploratory scenarios: the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). Neither of these scenarios target any particular outcome. They do not assume that aspirational objectives - such as those in the Paris Agreement - are met. The CPS was a regular feature of the International Energy Agency's suite of scenarios until the WEO-2020, when it was discontinued amid turmoil in energy markets and rapid changes in the policy landscape during the Covid-19 pandemic. Now that the world has passed through the pandemic and the global energy crisis, there is merit in revisiting the CPS.
The WEO-2025 will also include two normative scenarios that map out ways to achieve specific outcomes: the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, and a new scenario called the Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario (ACCESS). The ACCESS scenario builds on the best examples of rapid historical progress to develop a country-by-country pathway to universal access to modern energy services.
The WEO this year will not include the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS). The APS has been included in the WEO since 2021 and models a future for the energy system in which all national energy and climate targets - such as countries' nationally determined contributions - are achieved in full and on time. The intention for WEO-2025 had been to assess the new round of NDCs that were due this year, generally covering the period 2031-35. However, many countries are yet to announce or update their targets, and an update to the APS would give only a partial picture of the implications for energy and emissions. These will be reflected in future analysis.
In this commentary, we provide more information on the WEO-2025's scenarios, while focusing on the differences between the two exploratory scenarios - the CPS and STEPS - as a way of providing some context for the upcoming WEO.
